The Sale Of Diesel And Petrol Cars Could Have Already Peaked
New research suggests that, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the sale of diesel and petrol cars could have already peaked…
Has The Sale Of Diesel And Petrol Cars Peaked?
The sale of diesel and petrol cars could have already peaked, according to new research. Conducted by Deloitte, it’s revealed that regular car sales were down by 40% in the first half of 2020. Even the sale of electric models has declined, albeit not as strongly as ICE models. According to various reports, car sales won’t return to ‘normal’ until 2024 – by which point hybrids and EVs will be driving the market. That means, quite possibly, we’ve reached the maximum amount of cars that rely on traditional fuels already.
Jamie Hamilton, head of vehicles at Deloitte, said the change has largely gone unnoticed. He explained, “with total annual car sales unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024, even if sales growth in the petrol and diesel market returns, it is likely to experience a decline in market share thereafter”.
According to Deloitte’s research, the growth of the electric car market will be much more significant than initially thought. By 2030, for instance, it expects over 31 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid new cars will be sold around the world. For perspective, that’s 10 million more than previous forecasts. It believes 81% of these sales will be pure electric, too. Hamilton believes this is because of reduced costs; although he acknowledges that range and charging infrastructure could still present obstacles.
That said, the UK looks to outperform the rest of the world when it comes to electric cars. A combination of climate awareness and favourable government policies could accelerate EV-ownership. According to Deloitte, EVs could have a 65% market share by 2030 – nearly double the global average.
What to Make of This?
Industry analysts have, since at least the 50s, spoken of a ‘peak car’ phenomenon – in which a total amount of cars would be reached. The phenomenon has been observed in the UK, Germany, Japan and America. Numerous reasons are given, from rising disinterest amongst younger generations, urbanisation and emissions. However, what’s most interesting about Deloitte’s research is that it suggests the coronavirus crisis has accelerated how quickly we’re moving towards peak car-ownership – diesels and petrols in particular.
That said, its view that EV sales will make up 65% of new car sales is unusual and, we dare say, optimistic. Whilst the government plans to ban the sale of new diesel, petrol and hybrid models by 2035, there’s much uncertainty whether car manufacturers will be able to produce a sufficient amount of EVs; let alone in a sustainable way. There are even fears that drivers will simply hold on to their diesel, petrol and hybrid models for longer. Either way, only time will tell.
Fuel Additives: What Are They And Do They Actually Work? – https://www.autoserveclub.co.uk/blog/fuel-additives-what-are-they-and-do-they-actually-work/
Fuel Prices Rose By 3p Per Litre In July, According To New Figures – https://autoserve.co.uk/motoring-news/fuel-prices-rose-by-3p-per-litre-in-july-according-to-new-figures/